Source evidence
ECMWF, NOAA, national meteorological services, satellite and Earth-observation products, and other authorised sources can contribute evidence. Original source, product, time, unit and provenance are retained.
Weather information is only the beginning.
We study how trusted meteorological evidence can be verified, contextualised and translated into operational preparedness — without replacing the authorities that issue official warnings.
MetOry is currently available as a public beta platform. Core data, source and official-warning capabilities are active, while selected scientific and operational components remain under validation and continued research.
Scientific approach
A layered scientific approach
MetOry does not treat different meteorological sources as interchangeable forecasts. Forecast models, observations, satellite products and official warnings retain their own provenance, time semantics and scientific role.
Semantic understanding
Similar-looking meteorological variables are not automatically treated as equivalent. Their temporal meaning, measurement type, accumulation or extreme definition, location and source context are evaluated before comparison or verification.
Verification
Where scientifically compatible observations exist, forecast evidence can be evaluated against real-world observations under fixed temporal, quality and provenance rules.
Operational context
The same weather event can have very different consequences for a construction site, logistics route, agricultural operation or public event. Weather hazard, place or route, operation or sector, exposure and time remain distinct inputs.
Preparation & learning
The objective is not only to show that weather may occur, but to support a documented path from awareness to preparation, action, exercise and post-event learning.
Our scientific principles
Public scientific principles
- Source remains source.
- Missing is not zero.
- Agreement is not probability.
- Severity is not confidence.
- Official warning is not advisory.
- No silent data fusion.
- No public claim without evidence.
Multi-source meteorological evidence
MetOry works with different classes of meteorological evidence. Sources are not blindly merged, and different providers may use different numerical models, observation networks, temporal semantics and operational procedures. Named sources are not ranked, and attribution is not endorsement.
- Forecast
- Observation
- Satellite / Earth observation
- Official warning
Verification with real observations
Where scientifically compatible observations exist, forecast evidence can be evaluated against real observations using fixed quality, provenance and temporal rules. Historical and prospective verification methods are under active research. Provider accuracy rankings and confidence percentages are not published here.
- Missing data are not treated as zero.
- Nearby timestamps are not silently substituted for exact observation times.
- Rejected quality evidence remains rejected.
- A nearby observation is not silently substituted for an exact observation.
Research maturity
Statuses are taken from the public research configuration. VERIFIED is not used as a marketing badge.
- Official warning connectivityLIVE
- Source provenanceLIVE
- Forecast verificationIN VALIDATION
- Prospective reference-skill researchIN VALIDATION
- Operational impact modellingIN DEVELOPMENT
- Calibration researchIN RESEARCH
- Outcome learningPLANNED
From warning to readiness
Official warnings remain authoritative. MetOry preparation and advisory outputs are decision support. The two lanes stay parallel and are not merged.
Official warning — authoritative
MetOry preparation / advisory — decision support
Detect
Weather evidence or an official warning becomes relevant.
Reach
The information reaches the responsible person or team.
Acknowledge
Receipt and awareness can be recorded.
Assess
Operational relevance is reviewed in context.
Prepare
Recommended preparation steps can be reviewed, assigned and tracked.
Exercise / act
A drill, preparation action or real operational response can be recorded.
Review
Outcome and lessons can be captured for future improvement.
Preparedness Evidence Trail
Organisations may record, where applicable, a structured trail of warning, delivery, acknowledgement, assignment, action, exercise and review. This describes product and research direction. Not every state is production-ready today.
- Warning receivedLIVE
- Notification deliveredIN DEVELOPMENT
- Warning viewedIN DEVELOPMENT
- Warning acknowledgedIN DEVELOPMENT
- Responsible person or team assignedIN DEVELOPMENT
- Preparation startedIN RESEARCH
- Preparation completedIN RESEARCH
- Exercise completedPLANNED
- Outcome reviewedPLANNED
Preparedness exercises
Exercises evaluate whether a procedure can be practised: scenario, trigger, participants, expected actions, timing, acknowledgement, exercise and after-action review.
- Heavy rain warning
- Logistics facility
- Drainage inspection
- Outdoor stock protection
- Route review
- Manager acknowledgement
- Post-exercise review
Heavy rain warning
Illustrative / synthetic scenario. Not a real customer activity, not an observed outcome, and not an official warning.
- Location: logistics facility
- Trigger: heavy rain warning
- Expected: drainage inspection, outdoor stock protection, route review
- Then: manager acknowledgement
- Post-exercise review
Preparedness outcomes
Over time, organisations can build an evidence trail of preparedness activity and evaluate how warning, preparation and response processes are working.
- Warnings received
- Warnings acknowledged
- Preparation actions assigned
- Actions completed
- Exercises conducted
- Sites covered
- Acknowledgement time
- Preparation lead time
- Missed acknowledgement
- Post-event reviews completed
Process records are not a claim that MetOry prevented damage, saved money, or reduced risk by a percentage unless that result is independently measured and verified.
Research programmes
Five applied-research programmes. Each carries a current maturity status from configuration — not a marketing claim.
Multi-source meteorological evidence
Forecast, observation, satellite / Earth-observation and official-warning evidence, retained with source, product, time and provenance.
Forecast verification
Where suitable observations exist, forecast evidence can be tested against real observations. Historical and prospective verification methods are under active research.
Weather-to-impact modelling
Studying how meteorological hazards interact with location, exposure and operational context. Not a published loss or probability product.
Warning & preparedness behaviour
Studying whether warning information reaches the right person, is acknowledged in time and results in preparation.
Exercises, outcomes & learning
Evaluating preparedness procedures through exercises, records and post-event learning.
Climate adaptation and resilience
Our applied-research work is intended to contribute to practical climate adaptation and disaster resilience by helping organisations move from weather awareness toward structured preparedness, documented actions and learning.
This describes the direction of MetOry’s work and does not imply official affiliation, endorsement or funding by the European Union, EUMETSAT or any meteorological authority.
Research & data collaboration
We welcome dialogue with meteorological organisations, research institutions, climate-adaptation programmes and data providers regarding responsible data use, verification, interoperability and preparedness research.