MetOry تحقیق و ترقی

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بصیرت

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تصویر: Pixabay / Pexels

Forecast time · 2 منٹ کا مطالعہWhat T24 means on your screenT24 is the forecast for the next 24 hours, not a countdown to an event.پڑھیں

MetOry reads the forecast in windows: the next 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours. Each window shows the strongest value expected inside it, such as the highest wind or the heaviest rain.

A window never says that something will happen at a set hour. It tells you how far ahead you are looking.

Risk index · 2 منٹ کا مطالعہWhy 87 out of 100 is not an 87% chanceThe 0–100 index shows how demanding the forecast looks. It is not a probability.پڑھیں

The index places each hazard on one scale with four levels: low, watch, high and critical. It lets you compare places and days at a glance.

87 out of 100 means the forecast sits high on that scale, not that an event has an 87% chance. When data is missing we show it as unknown, never as safe.

Warnings · 2 منٹ کا مطالعہOfficial warnings and forecasts are not the sameOfficial warnings come from national weather services. Forecasts come from models. MetOry shows both and keeps them apart.پڑھیں

Warnings from services such as AEMET in Spain or Météo-France are shown with the issuing authority’s own wording.

A model forecast never becomes an official warning. When a warning feed is not connected, we say so instead of showing “no warnings”.

Sources · 2 منٹ کا مطالعہMany channels, counted onceMetOry tracks which weather model each value comes from, so the same model is never counted twice.پڑھیں

Global models are run by centres such as ECMWF, NOAA, DWD and Météo-France. Services like Open-Meteo pass their output on: they are channels, not separate models.

When models agree, that is useful context, but agreement alone does not prove accuracy. Accuracy is measured against real observations.

Verification · 2 منٹ کا مطالعہTesting forecasts fairlyWe store each forecast exactly as issued and compare it only with observations that come later.پڑھیں

Forecasts are saved before the weather happens and are never edited afterwards. Later, they are paired with station observations at the same hour.

Current work compares temperature forecasts from ECMWF, NOAA and DWD with station observations in Spain and France.

Marine · 2 منٹ کا مطالعہReading wave forecasts near a harbourMetOry Marine shows wave height, period and direction from the ECMWF wave model at the nearest open-sea point.پڑھیں

Each marina reads the nearest sea point of the model, up to 30 km away, and the distance is always shown. Inside harbours and bays the sea is usually calmer.

Rivers, canals, lakes and enclosed harbours are too small for the model, so they get no wave value rather than a guess. Official marine warnings come from the national authority.

تحقیق

ہمارے طریقے۔

پیش گوئیوں کی تصدیق اور خطرات کے جائزے کے طریقوں پر تکنیکی کام۔

مطالعہ

Temperature forecast verification in Spain and France

Pairs ECMWF, NOAA and DWD 2 m temperature forecasts with AEMET and Météo-France station observations at the exact valid hour.

طریقہ

Verification metrics for temperature

Bias, mean absolute error and root mean square error, computed per model, lead time and country.

طریقہ

Quality control of station observations

How station data is checked and flagged before it is used.

مطالعہ

Wave forecasts at open-water marinas

How wave height, period and direction are read from the ECMWF wave model at the nearest sea point.

طریقہ

Wind and gust assessment

Sustained wind and gusts from three global models, assessed separately and never derived from each other.

طریقہ

Heavy rainfall assessment

Rainfall totals over 1 to 24 hour windows, counted only when the whole window is covered.

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