Science · R&D · Innovation
Our research focuses on three questions: how to process weather data without losing its source, how to bring preparedness forward for weather-driven disasters, and how to measure risk as the climate changes.
Our goals
Each goal is listed with how its progress will be measured.
01 · Data processing
Processing multi-source meteorological data while preserving its meaning and origin.
Criterion · share of outputs without a source record · open verification reports
02 · Natural disasters
Floods and flash floods, storms, strong wind, heatwaves, snow and ice, coastal events.
Criterion · time from warning to the first preparation action · in exercise and event records
03 · Climate change and adaptation
Translating climate-scale change into the language of local operating thresholds.
Criterion · trends in local threshold frequency · decisions that become adaptation plans
Our scientific model
Weather information is only the beginning. The model has four layers: each inherits the previous layer’s output together with its origin, and no layer silently changes the evidence that came before it.
Calculation, rules and language each keep their role
calculates
Produces the values, ranges and verification metrics for your point from forecast fields.
Every number you see on screen comes only from here.
applies
Applies your thresholds and the sector pack’s rules deterministically.
Every trigger shows which rule ran, with which value.
explains
Translates the result into the language of your work and writes briefing and checklist text.
It explains. Numbers and thresholds come from the layers above.
Public scientific architecture
Forecast fields, official warnings, station observations and satellite products are taken in with their name, time and content identity.
Source evidenceVerification
Multi-model evidence for your point is ordered by lead time. The model range is shown openly; calibration comes only after verification.
Hazard
Your thresholds and exposure meet the weather evidence: which job, at what time, how much it may be affected.
ExposureImpactRiskTiming
Recommendation, checklist, decision record and exercise. Every step can be traced back to its source.
PreparationActionOutcomeLearning
We explain openly how the layers work. Threshold calibration, sector rule sets and the order in which evidence is combined remain part of the product.
Public scientific principles
Source remains source.
A provider’s record is never re-labelled as ours.
Missing stays missing.
A missing value stays missing; it never becomes “no rain” or “low risk”.
Agreement is shown as a range.
Similar model output is never presented as a probability.
Severity and confidence stay apart.
How strong an event could be says nothing about how sure we are.
Official warnings stay separate.
The issuing authority’s warning keeps its own lane; our output never takes its place.
No silent data fusion.
Sources are combined only by documented rules, and the combination stays visible.
No public claim without evidence.
A capability is described at the stage its published evidence supports.
Numerical analysis
Verification is done on the forecast’s own grid and at the exact valid time. The error definition, the metrics and the matching rule are public: an academic should be able to reproduce the same result.
The value is taken from the model’s own grid and the sampling method is recorded. No height correction is applied silently.
The same valid time is viewed from the T+6, T+12, T+24 and T+48 runs, so you see how forecast skill changes with lead time.
Forecast and observation are matched at the exact valid time. Unmatched samples are left out, with the reason recorded.
The range between models is shown openly, never as a probability.
Mean error, mean absolute error and root-mean-square error, by lead time, station and model. Missing data stays missing.
Models are ranked only after a verification campaign is complete and published.
Temperatures are handled in kelvin. Observations come from official national station networks: AEMET in Spain, Météo-France in France.
8stations4lead times3models56runs
5,376expected samples · 14 days
The campaign uses a selected set of stations and does not represent a whole country. Results will be published when it is complete.
Verification and maturity
Every scientific capability stands on one of five steps. A step is climbed only when its evidence is published. No capability is at the “in production” step today.
Source: public capability manifest
| Capability | 1Code present | 2Locally verified | 3Verified with a live source | 4Calibrated | 5In production |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 m air temperatureStandard variable · kelvinCurrent stage: Verified with a live source | reached | reached | current stage | not reached | not reached |
| Forecast–observation matching2 m air temperature onlyCurrent stage: Verified with a live source | reached | reached | current stage | not reached | not reached |
| Temperature verification metricsBias, MAE and RMSE · 2 mCurrent stage: Locally verified | reached | current stage | not reached | not reached | not reached |
| Heavy precipitation evidenceNot calibratedCurrent stage: Verified with a live source | reached | reached | current stage | not reached | not reached |
| Wind hazard evidenceNot calibratedCurrent stage: Verified with a live source | reached | reached | current stage | not reached | not reached |
| Confidence engineNo scored confidenceCurrent stage: Code present | current stage | not reached | not reached | not reached | not reached |
| Impact risk modelNot publishedCurrent stage: Code present | current stage | not reached | not reached | not reached | not reached |
| FloodHazard evidenceCurrent stage: In development | not reached | not reached | not reached | not reached | not reached |
| Climatological anomalyNeeded for the climate goalCurrent stage: In development | not reached | not reached | not reached | not reached | not reached |
Forecasts, sources and official warnings are shown separately. Combined probability, confidence and impact scores are in development.
Each status shows the current stage of the work.
Preparedness research
Official warnings remain authoritative. MetOry preparation and advisory outputs are decision support. The two lanes stay parallel and are never merged.
Lane 1
Issued by the national authority and shown unchanged, with attribution.
Lane 2
A separate reading for your activity, alongside official warnings.
Weather evidence or an official warning becomes relevant.
The information reaches the responsible person or team.
Receipt and awareness can be recorded.
Operational relevance is reviewed in context.
Preparation steps are reviewed, assigned and tracked.
A drill, a preparation action or a real response can be recorded.
Outcome and lessons are captured for next time.
Organisations can record a trail of warning, delivery, acknowledgement, assignment, action, exercise and review. Some steps are still in development.
Example scenario with sample values.
Results such as avoided damage or savings are claimed only when independently measured.
Research & Applied Science
Each programme shows its current status.
Forecast, observation, satellite / Earth-observation and official-warning evidence, retained with source, product, time and provenance.
Where suitable observations exist, forecast evidence can be tested against real observations. Historical and prospective verification methods are under active research.
How weather hazards interact with location, exposure and operational context.
Studying whether warning information reaches the right person, is acknowledged in time and results in preparation.
Evaluating preparedness procedures through exercises, records and post-event learning.
Collaboration
We welcome joint verification campaigns, exercise research and adaptation studies with universities, meteorological services, municipalities and civil-protection bodies — and dialogue on responsible data use, verification and interoperability.
Mentions of the European Union, EUMETSAT or meteorological authorities do not imply affiliation, endorsement or funding.
Sources are named for attribution. Official warnings come from national weather services.
